Trump Appears Increasingly Unstable as His Grip on the Race Weakens
Trump’s Erratic Behavior and Legal Jeopardy
Donald Trump appears to be growing more and more unmoored as the presidential race seems to slip from his grasp. Despite nearly celebrating a potential victory over President Biden based on his campaign’s polls, Trump’s strategy was thrown into disarray when Biden unexpectedly exited the race. Now, Trump seems increasingly unmoored, witnessing the presidency—his ultimate get-out-of-jail-free card—slip away.
Legal Jeopardy:
The presidency is not just a position of power for Trump; it’s a shield against multiple legal battles. He faces federal charges for the January 6th coup attempt, espionage for stolen documents, state charges of RICO in Fulton County, and 34 counts of fraud in New York. Without the presidency, he cannot benefit from the immunity it provides, leading to his increasingly desperate behavior. This essay will explore the extent of Trump’s legal troubles and how the fear of losing the presidency has driven him to unprecedented levels of desperation.
Kamala Harris’ Rising Momentum:
Adding to Trump’s anxiety, Kamala Harris is surpassing him in fundraising and gaining ground in battleground state polls. Harris leads Trump in eight national polls, including a recent RMG Research poll where she leads by 5 points (47% to 42%) among 3,000 registered voters from July 29 to July 31. Similarly, a Civiqs poll conducted between July 27 and July 30 shows Harris leading by 5 points (49% to 45%) among 1,123 registered voters. Despite these gains, Trump labeled the turmoil in global financial markets the “Kamala Crash” during his appearance at the National Association of Black Journalists (NABJ) Annual Convention & Career Fair.
Trump’s controversial remarks didn’t stop there; he questioned Kamala Harris’ Black identity and called her “low IQ” and “dumb.” He even suggested that Rachel Scott of ABC, who participated in the NABJ panel, should be fired, calling her “nasty.” In addition to these national polls, Harris also leads Trump by 3 points (49% to 46%) in a Leger poll conducted between July 26 and July 28 among 1,002 U.S. residents. Including third-party candidates, her lead grows to 7 points (48% to 41%).
A “Public Nervous Breakdown”:
The presidency is not just a position of power for Trump; it’s a shield against multiple legal battles. As president, he could potentially pardon himself and direct the Justice Department to halt prosecutions related to January 6, his failed coup attempt, and the espionage case involving sensitive documents allegedly stolen from the United States. The recent Supreme Court decision hinted that such self-pardons might fall within presidential authority, making them non-reviewable by the courts or Congress. Without this shield, Trump’s legal jeopardy intensifies.
In his desperation, Trump has resorted to attacking fellow Republicans, according to reporting by Politico. He criticized Georgia Governor Brian Kemp, calling him “a bad guy,” and labeled Tennessee Governor Bill Lee a “RINO” on Truth Social. John Watson, a former Georgia Republican Party leader, described Trump’s attack on Kemp as an “unforced error.” Meanwhile, Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.) urged Georgia Republicans to prioritize getting Trump across the finish line in November despite internal conflicts.
GOP strategists and former Trump administration appointees have described Trump’s behavior as a “public nervous breakdown.” Matthew Bartlett, a GOP strategist, emphasized Trump’s past effectiveness in primaries but noted his current inability to handle a competitive presidential race. An anonymous national Republican strategist pointed out that Trump’s lack of discipline is allowing Harris to define herself on her own terms, stating, “Democrats are racing to remake Kamala Harris from real-life Selina Meyer into the female Obama — and Donald Trump’s lack of discipline is letting them.”
Impact on the 2024 Election:
Trump’s erratic behavior continued during a 90-minute livestream with Adin Ross, where he made various statements about Venezuela, Kanye West, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and even mentioned listening to Elvis in a Tesla Cyber Truck adorned with his picture. Barrett Marson, an Arizona-based Republican strategist, remarked, “He’s a 78-year-old guy stuck in his ways. And this has been his way for decades.”
In addition to Harris’ national lead, she is also performing well in key swing states, according to reporting by Newsweek. However, Trump is currently the favorite to win the Electoral College. Nate Silver’s model shows Trump’s chances of winning the Electoral College at 54.9%, while Harris has a 44.6% chance. Despite this, Harris has a 53.5% chance of winning the popular vote compared to Trump’s 46.5%. Specifically, Harris has about a 54% chance of winning Michigan, while Trump has a 53% chance of winning Pennsylvania. Wisconsin remains a toss-up, with each candidate having a 50% chance.
If Trump fails to secure the presidency in November, he faces the grim prospect of multiple trials and the very real possibility of imprisonment. His escalating instability is a testament to the high stakes of this election, both for his future and the nation’s legal and political landscape.
Despite these challenges, a Trump campaign official emphasized that Trump can handle multiple messages simultaneously, comparing the current criticisms to those faced when mocking President Joe Biden’s physical and cognitive condition. However, Republicans worry that Trump’s focus on personal attacks detracts from policy discussions. They believe that focusing on policy contrasts rather than personal attacks would be more effective against Harris.
Trump’s entrenched ways and resistance to change pose a significant challenge for his campaign and the Republican Party. His behavior is perceived as giving Kamala Harris an advantage by allowing her to define her image without significant opposition. As the GOP tries to manage Trump’s outbursts and maintain party cohesion, the outcome of this election will be crucial in determining the future of both Trump and the Republican Party.
