The Problem: A Dangerous Fiscal Trajectory

If the U.S. does nothing, national debt will climb to over 231% of GDP by 2075. That’s not sustainable. It would mean the country owes more than twice the size of its entire economy, just as interest payments eat into core services and investment. But here’s the good news: this outcome isn’t destiny. It’s math. And math can be changed.

We built a model that shows how the U.S. could reduce its debt-to-GDP to under 80% in 50 years—without raising income taxes or slashing services—just by using existing tools more intelligently.

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The Assumptions (All Historically Supported):

• U.S. GDP grows at an average of 3.2% annually (nominal), in line with 50-year trends.
• Debt grows at 4.5%, consistent with past CBO projections.
• We start with:
  • $27.5 trillion in GDP
  • $34.1 trillion in debt
• The government invests in a $5 trillion Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) that earns 7% annually (based on historical S&P 500 returns), and borrows at 3.5% (Fed range).
• We assume modest but realistic policy reforms are partially successful:
  • 80% success on reducing future spending growth
  • 80% of expected revenue from a tiny 1% consumption tax
  • 90% of expected savings from cutting fraud/waste in healthcare
• We also assume a 20% boost to GDP from strategic immigration and public investment—again, reasonable and proven levers.

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What This Model Shows

Using only conservative math, we can reduce the national debt from over 230% of GDP to just 78.7%. That’s a 150-point drop in the debt ratio—achieved without touching Social Security, Medicare benefits, or income taxes.

This isn’t a fantasy. It’s compound interest and disciplined national policy.

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But Here’s the Catch: Why It Hasn’t Happened

Trump Has Already Touched the Concept—But Poorly

President Trump issued an executive order discussing a $1.5 trillion “national investment fund.” That idea hints at a sovereign wealth fund (SWF)—but:

• $1.5T is not enough to move the needle (our model assumes $5T just to stabilize debt).
• There is no congressionally approved infrastructure to govern the fund.
• There are no anti-corruption rules, no independent oversight, and no safeguards to prevent grift or political misuse.

In other words, it’s more of a gesture than a solution.

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The Real Barrier: Corruption and Democracy Gaps

Even brilliant fiscal design won’t work if the political system is corrupted or structurally broken. And right now, too much power in America operates without real accountability.

Here’s what we actually need:

Anti-corruption infrastructure for national programs like a sovereign fund:
Strict criminal enforcement, public transparency, independent audits—not optional.

Democracy reform so the public can actually choose solutions that work:

• The Electoral College can be nullified through congressional apportionment reform—making the presidency a direct vote without a constitutional amendment.
• The Supreme Court can be restructured by Congress—its size, term limits, and ethics rules are all subject to statute.
• The Senate is harder—equal state representation is locked into the Constitution—but everything else isn’t.

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The Truth: Fixing Debt Requires Fixing Governance

What stops us from solving the debt crisis isn’t economic—it’s political. We know how to grow responsibly. We know how to invest. We know how to control spending without hurting people. But we haven’t built the legal systems to guarantee integrity, or the democratic structures to reflect public will.

Until we do, even the best math won’t matter—because good ideas will keep dying in broken institutions.

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The Math

Part 1: No Reforms — The Unsustainable Path

Starting assumptions:

• Starting GDP (2025): $27.5 trillion
  
• Starting Debt (2025): $34.1 trillion
  
• GDP Growth Rate: 3.2%
  
• Debt Growth Rate: 4.5%
  
• Timeframe: 50 years (2025 to 2075)
  

The Math:

GDP in 2075:

27.5T×(1+0.032)50=132.84T27.5T \times (1 + 0.032)^{50} = \mathbf{132.84T}27.5T×(1+0.032)50=132.84T

Debt in 2075:

34.1T×(1+0.045)50=308.01T34.1T \times (1 + 0.045)^{50} = \mathbf{308.01T}34.1T×(1+0.045)50=308.01T

Debt-to-GDP (No Reform):

308.01T132.84T=231.9%\frac{308.01T}{132.84T} = \mathbf{231.9\%}132.84T308.01T​=231.9%

 Result: The U.S. ends up with over twice as much debt as economic output. That’s a systemic risk.

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Part 2: With Reforms — A Bold but Realistic Fix

Reform Package (50-Year Impact):

Reform	Impact (Trillions)	How It’s Calculated
Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF)	$124.36T	7% return – 3.5% interest over 50 years on $5T
Spending Growth Reform (80%)	$28.00T	80% of $35T potential
1% Consumption Tax (80%)	$28.00T	80% of $35T potential
Healthcare Efficiency (90%)	$7.20T	90% of $8T potential
Total Offset	$187.56T	Combined savings + returns

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Final GDP with Growth Boost:

• 20% gain from immigration + investment:
  

132.84T+(132.84T×0.2)=159.4T132.84T + (132.84T \times 0.2) = \mathbf{159.4T}132.84T+(132.84T×0.2)=159.4T

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Adjusted Debt:

Base Debt+SWF Borrowing−All Reform Gains=308.01T+5T−187.56T=125.45T\text{Base Debt} + \text{SWF Borrowing} – \text{All Reform Gains} = 308.01T + 5T – 187.56T = \mathbf{125.45T}Base Debt+SWF Borrowing−All Reform Gains=308.01T+5T−187.56T=125.45T

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Final Debt-to-GDP With Reform:

125.45T159.4T=78.7%\frac{125.45T}{159.4T} = \mathbf{78.7\%}159.4T125.45T​=78.7%

 Result: National debt is now lower than GDP and stabilizing over time.