Apollo Global Management, the World’s Largest Alternative Asset Manager, Issues Warning: 90% Risk of Severe U.S.
Apollo Global Management is warning of mass layoffs across the U.S. trucking and retail sectors, triggered by the cascading effects of newly imposed tariffs on Chinese imports. In its latest economic outlook, Apollo forecasts a sharp economic slowdown that could tip the country into a full-fledged recession by mid-2025.
According to the report, the trucking industry — critical to U.S. logistics and supply chains — faces significant headwinds as a result of declining container volumes from China. Imports traditionally account for about 20% of total U.S. trucking activity. With container ship voyages down over 40% year-over-year by April, freight volumes are contracting sharply. This collapse in maritime traffic directly reduces the number of goods available for domestic transportation, leaving trucking companies with underutilized fleets and declining revenue.
Apollo predicts that domestic freight activity will sharply slow by mid-May, pressuring firms already struggling through the so-called “Great Freight Recession” — one of the deepest and longest downturns in trucking history. Facing tighter margins, many carriers are expected to cut costs by slashing labor, setting the stage for mass layoffs across the industry.
The retail sector is no better off. Tariffs have triggered supply chain disruptions that are complicating inventory management and increasing lead times. Many American retailers are already struggling to secure products, particularly for goods manufactured in China. Apollo’s report warns that supply shortages will intensify throughout the second quarter, leaving store shelves increasingly empty and prompting job cuts as sales volumes shrink.
Retailers are also confronting a collapse in consumer confidence. Record-low consumer sentiment scores reflect growing economic anxiety, with households pulling back on discretionary spending. Companies like Chipotle and Southwest Airlines report a shift toward saving rather than spending among U.S. consumers — a trend that is hurting foot traffic and sales across a range of retail categories.
Adding to the pain, consumer debt stress is on the rise. Rising credit card delinquencies and higher minimum payment rates suggest households are reaching their financial breaking point, further reducing purchasing power and pushing the economy toward contraction.
Apollo’s broader forecast highlights a perfect storm of negative economic indicators: falling corporate spending, rising inventories, tariff-induced supply shortages, and declining consumer activity. Companies across multiple sectors are revising earnings forecasts downward and freezing capital expenditures. Many are quietly preparing for layoffs as they brace for a worsening economic environment.
Perhaps most concerning, Apollo warns that the U.S. is now at high risk of experiencing stagflation — a toxic combination of stagnant growth and rising inflation. Unlike typical recessions, where demand destruction leads to falling prices, the tariff-driven trade disruption is simultaneously shrinking growth while pushing prices higher across critical goods and services.
Federal Reserve surveys indicate supply chain-driven inflation is already squeezing businesses and consumers alike. Traditional monetary policy tools — such as interest rate cuts — may prove ineffective in such a scenario, raising the risk that inflation will persist even as economic activity contracts.
Strategic interventions may be necessary to mitigate the looming crisis. Apollo suggests policymakers focus on targeted support for vulnerable industries and communities, while companies reconfigure supply chains to reduce exposure to tariff-related shocks. However, with the clock ticking and the summer freight season approaching, time is running short.
Craig Fuller, CEO of FreightWaves, notes that the trucking industry is particularly vulnerable to these dynamics. “We’re already seeing layoffs quietly begin at mid-size carriers,” Fuller said. “By June, I expect the industry will be in full contraction mode.”
The warning signs are flashing across the economy: empty shipping lanes, weakening retail sales, surging credit defaults, and shrinking corporate investment. Apollo’s grim forecast offers a sobering reminder of the broader consequences of escalating trade wars — and the urgent need for businesses, workers, and policymakers alike to prepare for a turbulent road ahead.
