Trump Faces Growing Concerns Over Cognitive Decline as 2024 Election Looms

As the 2024 presidential race progresses, attention has shifted to Donald Trump’s cognitive state, with former allies, political commentators, and health experts expressing concern over his mental fitness. Trump, now 78, would be 82 by the end of a potential second term. His recent public appearances, rally speeches, and interviews have sparked speculation about his mental acuity, as several notable figures, including former staff members, question his coherence and memory.

Decline in Campaign Activity

In comparison to his 2016 campaign, Trump has significantly reduced the number of rallies he has held in 2024, with only 61 so far, compared to 283 in 2016. This reduction in public appearances has raised questions about his stamina and ability to engage with voters at the same level as previous campaigns. According to his former deputy press secretary, Sarah Matthews, Trump’s recent speeches are more rambling and incoherent than in the past. She remarked that the erratic nature of his speeches “maybe didn’t stand out as much when he was running against Biden,” implying that his decline might have gone unnoticed in comparison to his 2020 opponent.

Incoherent Speech and Memory Gaps

Trump’s speeches have not only become longer—averaging 82 minutes compared to 45 minutes in 2016—but are also more disjointed. An analysis by The New York Times found a 69% increase in the use of swearwords, while negative terms now dominate 32% more of his rhetoric compared to 2016. Trump has also adopted more extreme language, using all-or-nothing terms like “always” and “never” 13% more often than eight years ago.

His increasing reliance on fabricated or inaccurate stories has also drawn attention. For example, during a recent debate, Trump falsely claimed that immigrants were “eating the pets” in a small town, a claim that has no basis in reality. This growing detachment from factual events and his frequent references to the past—often invoking figures from the 1980s and 1990s—suggest a fixation on earlier decades, with some experts attributing this to cognitive disinhibition, a symptom often associated with aging.

Concerns from Former Allies

Anthony Scaramucci, once a close ally of Trump, now endorses Vice President Kamala Harris and has voiced concerns over Trump’s mental decline. “He’s lost a step. He’s lost an ability to put powerful sentences together,” Scaramucci remarked, adding that Trump’s once-dominant presence in debates has waned. Similarly, John F. Kelly, Trump’s former chief of staff, described the White House as “Crazytown” during Trump’s tenure and bought The Dangerous Case of Donald Trump, a book by mental health professionals analyzing Trump’s behavior. Kelly’s concern about Trump’s erratic behavior led to discussions about invoking the 25th Amendment during his presidency.

However, not all former associates share these concerns. Sam Nunberg, a former political adviser, believes that Trump’s behavior has not significantly changed, asserting that Trump has always had “off nights” and moments of unpredictability.

Increasingly Erratic Behavior

Trump’s recent public appearances have been marked by a string of odd moments. He mistakenly referred to North Korea as a country “trying to kill me,” likely confusing it with Iran. In a deposition for the defamation case brought by E. Jean Carroll, he confused Carroll with his second wife, Marla Maples, further fueling concerns about his cognitive stability. Trump has also been fixated on the 1980s and 1990s, frequently referencing long-deceased figures like Johnny Carson and Cary Grant.

Even as former allies express doubts about Trump’s cognitive abilities, his current campaign communications director, Steven Cheung, dismisses these concerns, calling Trump “the strongest and most capable candidate.” Trump himself has attempted to explain his erratic speech patterns as part of a strategy he refers to as “the weave,” which he claims is “brilliant.”

Medical Records and Transparency

Despite growing concerns, Trump’s campaign has been vague about his medical records. In July 2024, his former White House doctor released a one-page letter stating that Trump was “doing well” after being grazed by a bullet during an assassination attempt. However, the lack of comprehensive medical documentation has only added to the speculation surrounding his fitness for office.

As the 2024 election unfolds, Trump’s cognitive state remains a subject of debate. While some of his supporters, such as attorney James Trusty, insist that there are no signs of cognitive disconnects, others point to his increasingly disjointed speech, forgetfulness, and fixation on the past as clear indicators of decline. With former allies like Scaramucci now endorsing his opponent, the narrative surrounding Trump’s cognitive abilities is likely to play a pivotal role in the months leading up to the election.

Public Perception and the Road Ahead

Polls indicate that a significant portion of the American public shares concerns about Trump’s age and cognitive fitness, mirroring the doubts previously directed toward President Biden. The Lincoln Project, an anti-Trump group, has capitalized on these concerns, releasing ads that criticize Trump’s debate performance against Kamala Harris as evidence of his mental decline.

As the race continues, the debate over Trump’s fitness for office is expected to intensify. While his core supporters remain loyal, the broader electorate may be swayed by mounting evidence of cognitive decline, particularly as Trump faces a younger and more dynamic opponent in Kamala Harris.